Polls show Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump leading in their respective parties heading into Tuesday’s New York primary, which experts say can shape momentum in the nomination race moving forward.

Clinton and Trump both hold steady leads, according to polling data, but the number of delegates each wins will depend on how they and other candidates fare.

In order to receive delegates from the New York primary in the GOP race, a candidate must receive at least 20 percent of the vote. Trump, a New York City native, holds a steady lead in the GOP race, according to Real Clear Politics average polling data. The businessman is polling at 53.1, while Ohio Gov. John Kasich is at 22.8 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) falls short of the delegate threshold with just 18.1 percent.

On the Democratic side, Clinton, who served as a United States senator for New York state before being appointed secretary of state, holds a lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who was born in Brooklyn. Clinton is polling at 53.6 percent, while Sanders is at 41.6 percent, according to Real Clear Politics average polling data.

The Daily Orange spoke via email with Shana Gadarian and Grant Reeher, two political science professors at Syracuse University, to see what they’re expecting in Tuesday’s primary.

The Daily Orange: What is the expectation going into the primary as far as results? Easy wins for Clinton and Trump, or is it expected to be more tightly contested?

Shana Gadarian: These are relatively easy wins for both Trump (and) Clinton, but expect the other candidates to pick up some delegates. On the GOP side, you have to get 20 (percent) so it’s possible Cruz or Kasich gets shut out but it’s unlikely Trump gets all the delegates.

Grant Reeher: Polls have consistently shown both Clinton and Trump to have comfortable leads, especially so for Trump. So that is the expectation going in. For Sanders, the particular rules regarding voter eligibility in New York state make it harder for late surges to change things. The registration deadline for new voters was last month, and the deadline for a registered voter to change from one party into another party, or from independent into a party, was last October. So independents excited by Sanders would have had to figure that out last October before his campaign really got going. This also works against Trump, but he has a large lead already. Cruz is not a good fit for New York’s Republicans, I don’t think.

The D.O.: How important is New York state and its delegates in each race? On the Republican side there’s obviously been some talk of Donald Trump losing momentum, so does New York become a critical state for him?

S.G.: Trump needs to keep up momentum but even if he gets 2/3 of the delegates, he’s still looking good. If Cruz does better than expected, expect him to make an argument that he’s still the only one who can stop Trump at the convention.

G.R.: New York is essential for Trump. A loss here would be devastating to his campaign going forward. On the Democratic side, if Sanders does not pull off an upset, it’s probably the beginning of the next stage of the “inevitability” framing of the race, for Clinton. Given that the delegates in the Democratic race are allocated proportionately, neither one will likely change much of “the math” which favors Clinton at this point.

The D.O.: We’ve seen nearly every candidate make a stop near Syracuse in the past couple weeks — How big of a role will upstate cities like Syracuse play in determining the results of the primary?

S.G.: Upstate is more conservative than downstate so it will actually be more important on the GOP side since there are more voters concentrated here overall. However conservative voters in blue districts have a big determinant since GOP delegates are apportioned by Congressional district.

G.R.: Given the various groups that each candidate is appealing to, all parts of the state will be important for both parties’ candidates. So upstate is going to be important in both races, I would think.

The D.O.: Looking ahead to the big picture, after New York votes, will there be a clear picture of who the nominee will be on each side? Or is that something that won’t be obvious for a few more weeks?

S.G.: Each candidate is still going to keep fighting. After NY, the Dem side will be clearer than the GOP side, which probably won’t battled until the convention in July.

G.R.: My hunch is that things will get a little clearer in Clinton’s Favor after New York, but the race will definitely go on. On the Republican side, I don’t see New York making anything clearer. We are going to the wire on that one, and perhaps beyond, into the convention.

Published on April 18, 2016 at 10:50 pm

Contact Brett: blsamuel@syr.edu | @Brett_Samuels27