Syracuse (17-9, 6-7 Atlantic Coast) plays the first of three road games in its next four contests on Saturday at noon against Miami (18-7, 7-6) in Coral Gables, Florida, at the Watsco Center. The Orange dropped a crucial home game to North Carolina State, 74-70, on Wednesday that made SU’s NCAA Tournament odds longer. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes are on a small slide of their own having lost at home against Virginia, 59-50, on Tuesday and at Boston College, 72-70, on Saturday.

Here’s what to know about the matchup.

All-time series: Syracuse leads, 17-8

Last time they played: Syracuse got bounced in the first round of the ACC tournament for the third time in a row last season — that time by Miami, 62-57. For the Hurricanes, Kamari Murphy had a double-double (16 points, 10 rebounds) and Davon Reed put up 14 points to key the victory. For Syracuse, Andrew White III (22 points) and Tyus Battle (14) followed up their combined 62 points in the season-finale against Georgia Tech with nearly two-thirds of the Orange’s points. In the last game of his college career, Tyler Lydon had 12 rebounds and five points.

The Miami report: After a blistering start to the season in which the Hurricanes lost just one game in nonconference play — to New Mexico State, ranked 45th on Kenpom.com — Miami has been unable to string more than a few wins together in the ACC slate. Now, in mid-February, UM head coach Jim Larrañaga is seeing the impact of starting four underclassmen.

“It will be interesting to see how we respond to two consecutive losses,” Larrañaga told the Miami Herald on Tuesday. “… Now, we’ve got to face the vaunted Syracuse 2-3 defense (on Saturday). There’s an expression that the freshmen hit the wall in February, and I see some of that in practice. Where the energy level is not quite as good as it was in September and October, the attention to detail, where everyone’s listening. There’s a little more fatigue now.”

On offense, Miami has seen that dip from almost everyone, except freshman point guard Chris Lykes. He was Miami’s only real weapon — 19 points in 27 minutes — against Virginia. Meanwhile, his teammates have struggled, including sophomore big man Dewan Huell and freshman wing Lonnie Walker, who was also a one-time Syracuse target. Miami does have a redshirt freshman walk-on from New Zealand name Sam Waardenburg, who has hit 11-of-19 3-point shots this year and perfectly fits the profile of a player Syracuse might allow to splash from beyond the arc on Saturday.

On defense, Huell serves as the Hurricane rim protector and he blocks 4.3 percent of shots he sees near the basket, according to Kenpom. The Hurricanes — which have the nation’s 20th-best adjusted defensive efficiency, per Kenpom — are particularly adept at running shooters off the 3-point line and opponents are only collecting 29.5 percent of their points from there, one of the nation’s lower rates. Four UM players average a steal per game, but one of them, Bruce Brown Jr. (1.3), will miss this game because of a foot injury.

How Syracuse beats Miami: Put ‘em on the line.

Out of 351 Division I teams, Miami ranks 314th in free-throw percentage (66.4) — which is also our “Stat to Know” segment of this opponent preview — because we have seen free-throw shooting have a tangible impact on the Hurricanes games this season. Last Saturday, even though UM shot better than normal at Boston College — 14-for-20 (70 percent) from the stripe — they lost, 72-70.

Lykes, Miami’s most important offensive player, shoots 69.2 percent from the stripe and only one player on the team shoots better than 78.5 percent from there. That would be Dejan Vasiljevic, a sophomore guard from Australia who plays about 60 percent of the team’s minutes but is listed by Kenpom as someone in a “limited role.”

If Syracuse can get into a free-throw shooting contest with Miami it will slow down a game that Lykes will sometimes kick into overdrive with his speed. Slowing down will bring the pace back to where Syracuse likes it and give the Orange a better chance to win. The North Carolina State game notwithstanding, Syracuse has succeeded from the line this season, ranking among the middle of teams there (135th, 72.2 percent).

Kenpom odds: Kenpom gives Syracuse a 32 percent chance to win and predicts a 66-61 defeat. After the North Carolina State loss, Syracuse is projected to fall in each of its last five games.

Player to watch: Chris Lykes, point guard, No. 2

The 5-foot-7, 161-pound freshman has grabbed the reins of the Hurricane’s offense in his first year. Larrañaga has given him about two-thirds of the minutes while supplementing him with Newton, but Miami hasn’t had to worry much about Lykes in conference play. Lykes has raised his game in the ACC, and more than a quarter of UM’s possessions end with him making a play, the 11th-highest rate in the ACC. Lykes isn’t a great shooter from beyond the arc, hitting 38 of his 105 attempts (36.2 percent), but on the drive he represents one of the more dangerous weapons in the conference, where he hits 52 percent of his shots.

Published on February 16, 2018 at 3:55 pm

Contact Sam: sjfortie@syr.edu | @Sam4TR