Favorite first-round game? Most likely team to be a sleeper? Final Four MVP? Our beat writers pick those categories and more as they dish out superlatives for the 2018 NCAA Tournament. Here they are.

Matthew Gutierrez: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Pennsylvania

No. 1 seeds are 132-0 against No. 16 seeds. There’s a point the underdog will come out victorious. That may not happen in this game, though don’t rule it out: Penn defends the perimeter well and Kansas relies heavily on 3s. But this is a fun early contest for another reason: We can highlight the growth of the Ivy League. The conference has never received an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament but has grown deeper, better and more respected in recent years. As the state of college basketball is in a type flux, the Ivy League is a refreshing deviation from big-time, high-profile and sometimes scandalous Power 5 college athletics. See you at the library.

Sam Fortier: No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 Stephen F. Austin

Last summer, I attended a living wake in Lubbock, Texas, with football coach Kliff Kingsbury and watched Red Raider alums cling to him. Across the gym, at a small table, sat the basketball team. A smattering of claps generously describes their reception when the moderator announced Chris Beard’s squad was in the building. This season, though, Beard rolled through the Big 12 for Tech’s best finish ever, has them playing the best ball in program history and now leads this upstart program against Stephen F. Austin. The Lumberjacks are, well, first off called the Lumberjacks and they’re no scrubs. The mid-major, in-state challenger has proven itself as a giant-killer with wins over VCU and West Virginia in 2014 and 2016, respectively. I wanted to pick this game because, while Rhode Island-Oklahoma has lots of awesome storylines and a sweet timeslot on Thursday at noon, this is the sneaky game you should be watching. Both teams have fun stars, play an exciting, fill-it-up brand of basketball and will draw a rowdy crowd because they’re playing in Dallas. It’ll be bigger — because Texas — so join me and tune in.

Tomer Langer: No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 13 Buffalo

There’s a lot of intrigue in this matchup. Arizona was at the center of the recent FBI investigation so the team will be a key talking point because of its role as the focal point of the biggest story in college basketball. But the Wildcats also have a great offense, headlined by the most dominant big man in recent history in Deandre Ayton. Meanwhile, they’ll get upstart Buffalo, a team that gave Syracuse a run for its money earlier this year. The Bulls average possession length is 14.7 seconds, the fifth-fastest in the country. Sometimes, NCAA Tournament games can be sluggish when two nervous teams hit the court and shots aren’t going in. That shouldn’t be an issue in this matchup.

MG: Xavier (No. 1, West)

According to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics, Xavier profiles closer to a No. 4 seed. The Musketeers probably will reach the Sweet Sixteen, but that likely matchup against Gonzaga bodes well for the latter. The Zags run a strong offense as the fifth-best team in the country at scoring inside the arc. The Musketeers, meanwhile, rank just 180th against 2-point shooting. The wheels may come off for No. 1 seed Xavier before that matchup, though, against a talented Missouri or Florida State team in the Round of 32. Xavier’s on upset alert.

SF: Cincinnati  (No. 2, South)

The Bearcats play a style of play dangerously close to Syracuse’s where they grind opponents to a halt on the defensive side but struggle to score often enough to cover up its deficiencies there. Senior wing Gary Clark, a top-10 KenPom national player of the year, can get hot in a hurry from the field, but he’s only one player. KenPom finds that Cincy can cover its tracks well enough by pulling down offensive rebounds — it ranks third — and generating more possessions with which to score but it’s unclear how much that is exactly planned. Still, Cincy has one of the most difficult first weekends because it plays a tough Georgia State team and then runs into one of two forces this season in Nevada or Texas.

TL:  Tennessee (No. 3, South)

The Vols have a stellar defense that should keep it in most games. But they also rank 290th in the country in two-point field goal percentage per Kenpom.com. Eventually in the NCAA Tournament, you’re going to have to score. Even if Tennessee wins its first game, it’ll have to either face a dynamic Miami team or a sneaky good Loyola Chicago squad. At that point, Tennessee might be cooked.

MG: Bucknell (No. 14, Midwest)

The Bisons are one of the most experienced teams in the field, returning 77.2 percent of minutes from a season ago. They played close to North Carolina and Maryland back in November, efficiently scoring in the paint. Their opponent, No. 3 Michigan State, is susceptible to an early loss, as Syracuse fans know from just two years ago (see: Middle Tennessee State). Then, who knows, maybe Bucknell ends up playing Syracuse this weekend in Detroit. Look out for the small liberal arts school that is Bucknell.

SF: New Mexico State (No. 12, Midwest)

The Aggies are going to the Sweet 16. Before you click off this article because I picked NMSU to beat No. 5 Clemson and No. 4 Auburn, allow me to convince you why Chris Jans’ squad deserves your attention. My argument’s basis is really that NMSU is competent enough to beat the two beat-able teams standing in its way. They play good defense, take care of the ball and can heat up from the floor on occasion. Zach Lofton leads an Aggies offense that averaged 84.3 points per game in its three-game run to win the WAC tournament championship. Sure, KenPom.com only gives NSMU a 35 percent chance to win its opening game, but after that, everything is up for grabs. Clemson is beatable because the team looks tangibly different since Donte Grantham’s injury and Auburn lost three of its last five, the Southeastern Conference tournament opener and three of its top players due to the FBI investigation and injury. The Aggies get some luck on the draw and make the most of it from there.

TL: St. Bonaventure (No. 11, East)

The Bonnies and Jaylen Adams are legit — just as Syracuse or Rhode Island. St. Bonaventure already won its first-four game against UCLA and will be coming in having won 14 of its last 15 games. The Bonnies do have potentially tough matchups — against Florida, and then against Texas Tech if the Red Raiders hold off Stephen F. Austin — but gimme this team to make the second weekend.

MG: Virginia (1, South), Gonzaga (West, 4), Villanova (1, East) and Michigan State (3, Midwest)

Virginia because of that defense, balanced with versatility inside. Six different guys have led the Cavs in scoring this year. Six! In the West, Gonzaga may make a deep run, because the Zags could have won it all last year. Villanova has a relatively easy route in its region, and Jay Wright is getting better and better every spring. In the Midwest, Syracuse’s region, look out for Michigan State, which could end up facing No. 2 seed Duke — a team the Spartans narrowly lost to earlier this season.

SF: Virginia (1, South), Villanova (1, East), Michigan (3, West), Duke (2, Midwest)

Duke has the sheer talent and some balance with senior guard Grayson Allen and freshman Marvin Bagley III. Villanova has the savvy remnants from its national championship-winning team from two years ago. Michigan is riding a nine-game win-streak and, free-throw shooting aside, it can score as well as anyone. That’s a problem for everyone else because Big Blue also has one of the nation’s top defensive teams, according to the Kenpom, and can win games on either end of the floor. Virginia has everything, from dangerous scorers to a charismatic head coach to the culture to the pack-line defense. The Cavs are well-ordered and well-prepared to make this splash.

TL:  Arizona (4, South), Purdue (2, East), North Carolina (2, West), Kansas (1, Midwest)

Part of the reason I thought Arizona was my favorite first round matchup is because I think the Wildcats can make a legit run to San Antonio this year. I’m not sure there’s an answer for Ayton this year — not even from Virginia. I think the East has the weakest bracket overall, and for whatever reason I don’t trust ‘Nova as much as others (including Sam and Matthew) do. I do think this year’s version of the Boilermakers is for real though. I’ve seen too much of UNC being dominant this year, and when you couple that with their experience from last year, they should be able to go deep. Kansas also has an incredibly balanced squad and should get Udoka Azubuike back for the Tournament.

MG: Virginia

Defense doesn’t necessarily equate to championships or deep runs. We’ve been reminded seemingly every year that a good offense beats a good defense in March. Heck, UVA won a game this year without even scoring 50 points. But there are many reasons to believe this is the year Virginia breaks through and reaches its first Final Four since 1984. This season, the Cavaliers went 31-2 and won the best conference in the country, topping a hot, experienced North Carolina team last weekend to win the ACC title and put the icing on the cake to a sensational season. I’m taking UVA, even without De’Andre Hunter.

SF: Virginia

In a banner day for fans of white-collar college basketball, the Cavs defeat the Wildcats for its first national championship in program history. UVA head coach Tony Bennett gets the win that lets his legacy rival that of his fathers, the Wahoowa faithful get the validation they’ve always wanted and the players get rings but not much else for their contribution in this entire Tournament. Virginia will finally do it based upon defense and, though the national championship won’t drive ratings, Syracuse fans should rest easy knowing the biggest, baddest team on the block this season will be of the same conference.

TL: Kansas

Kansas is just stacked, especially with Devonte’ Graham leading the way. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk has unlimited range but can sneak right past a defender and go to the rim if people play him too far out. Azubuike is a tank at 7 feet and 280 pounds, who can anchor a defense and also clear space for KU’s attack. LaGerald Vick can be a Swiss Army Knife for the team, adapting his role to what’s needed. And the Jayhawks found a surprise contributor in freshman Silvio De Sousa, who stepped up in a big way in the Big 12 Tournament. But the main reason I think Kansas wins I’ll state below.

MG: Devon Hall, guard, Virginia

The 6-foot-5 senior guard averages “only” 12 points per game because he has so much help. He can play big, a plus for any guard in the college game, and he got hot against UNC last weekend, hitting 3-of-4 from deep. He’ll play nearly 40 minutes every game this season. If his stroke heats up and the Cavaliers play as they have, Hall could take home some personal hardware in a few weeks.

SF: Kyle Guy, guard, Virginia

This presupposes I get any of the Final Four teams right, which feels generous, but I’ll play along. Kyle Guy might be the most recognizable, though not necessarily the best player on his No. 1-ranked team. He averages a team-high 14.1 points per game on about 40 percent shooting. If Guy’s supporting cast keeps it up, he can supplement that production by getting his points, shooting the percentage he’s accustomed to and continuing playing within the flow of the offense. Then, the question remains, how are he and the Hoos fined on the way to the national championship?

TL: Devonte’ Graham, guard, Kansas

When I think of the essence of March Madness, I think of star players — mostly guards — elevating their already very balanced team to a new height. The first guy I really remember watching do that was Kemba Walker. Ryan Arcidiacono and Joel Berry stand out from the last two years. I think Graham is that kind of player. He’s got a knockdown jumper from anywhere on the court and can dish the ball to the right spot when he’s getting added pressure. Having covered a game he played in when SU played KU in December, he also seems to have that star player “it” factor aura that few others have.

Published on March 14, 2018 at 10:35 am