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With a win over West Virginia last Saturday, Syracuse advanced its postseason run as a No. 11 seed to the Sweet 16. The Orange used 25 points from Buddy Boeheim and 12 from three others to build an early double-digit lead and withstand a comeback from the Mountaineers in the second half.

That brings the Orange into a matchup against No. 2 seed Houston, which used a late second-half run to avoid being upset against Rutgers. The Cougars are ranked in the top 11 in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom. They’re also led by Quentin Grimes, who averages 18 points per game and has increased that number by averaging 18.6 points per game in Houston’s five postseason contests.

Here’s what The Daily Orange’s three beat writers think will happen in the Orange’s first Sweet 16 game since 2018:

Andrew Crane (18-9)
Houston, SU has a problem
Houston 82, Syracuse 77

I didn’t think at any point we’d be predicting a Sweet 16 matchup involving Syracuse, but here we are. The Orange rode some incredible shooting and pulled off a pair of first-weekend upsets, but continuing that same stretch into their matchup against Houston will be extremely difficult. Houston is one of the most well-rounded teams in the country, even with a limited DeJon Jarreau — who head coach Kelvin Sampson is hoping will be at 70-75% — and I think the area that sways me toward the Cougars the most is their offensive rebounding, with Houston’s 39.9 percentage ranking second in the country. It’s an instant flashback to games like North Carolina-SU on Jan. 12, when the Tar Heels had as many offensive rebounds as they did defensive boards.

Maybe I’m wrong, and maybe Syracuse is actually a different team that’s not riding one hot shooter and can win if Buddy scores, say, 12 or 15 points. Maybe they’ll extend this bizarre run into the Elite Eight and book a visit with either Loyola Chicago or Oregon State. But I’m expecting Houston’s offense to overpower the Orange’s defense to a point where, even if Buddy can top 30 points again, it still won’t be enough.

Anthony Dabbundo (20-7)
Punching above their weight
Houston 77, Syracuse 73

Syracuse’s late renaissance has allowed everyone to forget the mediocre regular season for the Orange. They’re playing their best basketball of the season right now and playing as well as anyone in the country. But so are the Cougars. They may not have seen the Syracuse zone, but they have seen plenty of zones this year and have shredded every single one. Synergy says they’re an excellent zone offense and have seen zones at a top-50 rate in the nation. The Cougars are a physical, elite defense and rebounding unit on offense.

If this game were played on a short turnaround, I’d probably pick Syracuse due to the zone prep time and Jarreau’s health. But with a week to prepare for the Orange and a likely healthier Jarreau, the Cougars’ offensive rebounding edge will be too much for Syracuse to overcome in this one. The Cougars prevail in a tight game with a 77-73 victory.

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What else you should know before Syracuse takes on Houston:

• Joe Girard’s postseason improvements fly under radar in Syracuse backcourt
  
• The NBA buzz around Buddy Boeheim’s superstar March
  
• No. 11 Syracuse defied odds again. So how far can the Orange go?
  
• Beat writer Q&A: Houston Chronicle’s Joseph Duarte previews SU-Houston
  
• Jesse Edwards still isn’t ready to become SU’s starting center, but he’s almost there
  
• Beat writers disagree about whether SU will beat Houston
  

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Danny Emerman (17-10)

Do you believe in Miracles?
Syracuse 76, Houston 75

Throw all logic out the window. The stats, matchups, analytics, intangibles that go into this game? I don’t want to hear them. Syracuse is past them.

This March run for SU defies logic. Syracuse peaking at the perfect time is an understatement. This team was left for dead several times during a painfully average regular season. Now it’s playing as well as anyone. Houston’s the best team Syracuse has faced all year. It’s strong against zones and has the defensive capabilities necessary for slowing down Buddy and co.

But I’m done picking against the Orange. The run doesn’t end Saturday.

Published on March 24, 2021 at 11:39 pm