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No. 11 Syracuse (5-4, 1-3 Atlantic Coast) will visit No. 5 Virginia (10-3, 2-3) on Saturday, facing the only ACC program it has defeated this year. The Orange’s 20-10 victory against the Cavaliers in late February was the largest margin of victory between the two squads.

Syracuse has lost three of its last four games, and its struggles in ACC play were highlighted in a 21-9 thrashing at the hands of North Carolina this weekend. To compound problems, the Orange suspended No. 22 Chase Scanlan this week and will likely miss starting defender Nick DiPietro and short-stick defensive midfielder Brandon Aviles.

The Cavaliers, however, have won five of their last six matchups and have found multiple breakout years from underclassmen, including 52 points from leading scorer and redshirt freshman Connor Shellenberger.

Here’s what our beat writers predict will happen during Saturday’s game:

Roshan Fernandez (6-3)
Anomaly?
Virginia 16, Syracuse 14

When Syracuse beat UVA by 10 goals after dropping its season-opener to Army, a pressing question arose, one that’s continued throughout the team’s season: which Syracuse team will show up? After that Feb. 27 blowout win, it’s often been a disjointed Syracuse team that’s struggled to play consistently well. Syracuse’s win over UVA has turned into the anomaly of this season instead of the standard.

Syracuse needs to bounce back for its last two games of the regular season to avoid its first losing season since 2007, and it’ll likely have to do so without Scanlan, DiPietro and Aviles. Syracuse’s defense has been porous recently, and I don’t see it holding up against a UVA offense that has been clicking as of late. SU drops this game.

Allie Kaylor (6-3)
Fool me once
Syracuse 13, Virginia 17

In head coach John Desko’s weekly press conference after Syracuse’s 20-10 win over Virginia, someone asked if this Syracuse team resembles its performance against Virginia or its performance in its 18-11 loss against Army. “Well, I sure hope it’s more like Virginia,” he replied.

But what Desko hoped isn’t what happened, as the Orange have not beat a single ranked opponent since, going 4-3 in the seven ensuing games. Their 10-goal margin of victory against the Cavaliers has been their largest all season. A once-powerful offense has stagnated the past few games — and will now be without leading goal-scorer Scanlan — and a struggling defense has somehow gotten even worse.

Virginia has taken almost the complete opposite course since that game. The Cavaliers fell to No. 9 in the rankings following the loss but are 7-2 since, with ACC opponents Duke and North Carolina as their only losses. Their season-low in goals is 10, and they haven’t scored fewer than 12 in any other game. Add on breakout seasons from Jared Conners, Matt Moore and Shellenberger, and you have a behemoth of a team that wasn’t really present two months ago.

Both teams have something to play for here. Syracuse is on the brink of its first losing season in over a decade and needs just one more win to push it over the top. After falling out of the top 10 this week, it’s trying to prove it still has what it takes to make the NCAA Tournament. Virginia, on the other hand, wants revenge. A humiliating loss in the Carrier Dome followed by a blowout win at home would be the cherry on top of an otherwise stellar season for the Cavaliers. It’s also their last game of the regular season, one last chance to prove that they have what it takes.

The Cavaliers are the better team, and especially without Scanlan, I don’t think SU will upset them.

Arabdho Majumder (5-4)
Opposite trends
Syracuse 15, Virginia 19

Syracuse will likely be missing DiPietro and Aviles on Saturday. Scanlan is currently suspended, too. Even before that, it was hard to see how this Orange team could find a way around a Virginia squad that’s a far cry from the one that was shelled for 20 goals in the Carrier Dome. That was nearly two months ago. The Cavaliers have grown with each game, pushed Duke to overtime and beat North Carolina and Notre Dame. The Orange have shrunk to an almost unrecognizable form from their preseason expectations of being a championship contender.

There’s not a facet of the game that Syracuse seems to be in control of. The faceoff unit has been up-and-down — mostly down — and the defense had a few bright moments in holding Virginia and Duke to three goals in a half. But overall, the Orange look undisciplined and give up far too many great looks for goalie Drake Porter to bail them out. The offense believes if they have the ball more, they’ll do damage, but at some point, they’ll have to work with the limited possessions they’re getting. And without a nuclear effort from the midfield — which was so highly touted before the season — SU just can’t match Virginia’s balanced attack.

Losing to Duke by one goal may be Syracuse’s brightest moment since taking down Virginia in February. And it’ll likely stay that way as the Orange finish conference play with two straight games on the road, starting with Virginia and then Notre Dame the weekend after.

 

Published on April 21, 2021 at 9:33 pm