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Syracuse won back-to-back games for just the second time this season last week, defeating Indiana in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge before snapping Florida State’s 25-game home winning streak on Saturday. That brings the Orange into their toughest nonconference test yet: 6-2, No. 6 Villanova on Tuesday night, with the two teams meeting in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden.

The Wildcats have won three consecutive games since falling to No. 1 Purdue on Nov. 21, and their only other loss came against No. 4 UCLA. Collin Gillespie leads them in scoring with 17.8 points per game, while three other starters are averaging double-digit points, headlining an offensive group that ranks No. 4 nationally in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom.

Here’s what The Daily Orange’s beat writers think will happen in Syracuse’s first game at Madison Square Garden since the 2018-19 season.

Andrew Crane (3-5)
Born to run (MSG version)
Villanova 85, Syracuse 74

A win against Villanova would mean that the Orange defeated Indiana, Florida State and the Wildcats within a seven-day span and completely changed the trajectory of their season heading into the bulk of conference play. The 1-1-3 zone has helped, but it’s only a matter of time before teams figure out how to attack that defensive wrinkle and mitigate its impact. That game will come on Tuesday — Villanova won’t make just 4-of-30 shots from beyond the arc like Florida State did, that’s for sure. Since neither team turns to their bench all that often, with the Wildcats ranking 324th and Syracuse ranking 351st in bench minutes, per KenPom, this game will likely come down to who stays out of foul trouble at the key positions. I don’t trust the Orange in that area just yet, so look for Villanova to pull away late in a high-scoring, fast-paced game for its seventh win by a double-digit margin this season.

Roshan Fernandez (4-4)
Out of magic…for now
Villanova 80, Syracuse 78

I picked Syracuse to lose the Indiana game and I was wrong. Then I picked Syracuse to lose the Florida State game, and I was wrong again. So I’m very skeptical about making the same mistake three times in a row, but I’m going to make it anyway. Villanova ranks fourth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and is a very good 3-point shooting team (seventh in the nation in 3-point percentage). That’s a good recipe to beat the Syracuse zone, and despite the 1-1-3 adjustment that seems to be working when used sporadically, the Orange were very lucky that Florida State’s shots simply weren’t falling. They didn’t play well defensively against Indiana, either. Boeheim said bluntly after the game that ”our defense isn’t good enough, period. End of story.”

Villanova is going to capitalize on a Syracuse team that’s still sorting through defensive issues. Shooting well in spurts can only carry the Orange so far, and unless they can put together a complete, lights-out shooting performance, the magic is going to run out — for now — against Cole Swider’s former team.

Gaurav Shetty (4-4)
Third time is not the charm
Villanova 75, Syracuse 67

After calling Syracuse’s win over Indiana, I ended up being wrong about Syracuse’s chances over FSU. The Seminoles had a remarkably bad shooting performance going 4-for-30 from the 3. That woeful shooting allowed the Orange to stay in the game and eventually pull out the win. Maybe Syracuse goes on a run of three games and beats teams most people think they wouldn’t, but Swider’s former team is one of the best in the nation, per KenPom. If there’s a way for the Orange to pull off a huge upset and tack on another marquee win, they must have stellar shooting all game. The first half against FSU was not pretty as Syracuse shot just 8-for-35. The Wildcats are outside the top 150 in both 2-point and 3-point defense on KenPom, so they can be exploited. I’m going to resist the urge to call a Syracuse upset, but if the Orange manage to play a full game with quality shooting, they might be able to pull it off.

Published on December 6, 2021 at 9:10 pm