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Syracuse has now lost back-to-back games for the first time since the end of November. Though they came against some of the top opponents in the Atlantic Coast Conference, the Orange haven’t shown that they can close out close games recently, a question that has frustrated the team and left head coach Jim Boeheim walking off of podiums. Now, the Orange will take on No. 7 Virginia for the second time this season.

Despite Joe Girard III scoring 19 points and two players grabbing 10 rebounds, the Orange looked outmatched the last time they played the Cavaliers and a 12-0 run after the halftime break sealed the win for UVA.

Ahead of their final regular season matchup of the season, here’s what our beat writers think will happen on Monday night:

Anish Vasudevan (18-4)
Outmatched
Virginia 77, Syracuse 68

The Cavaliers have destroyed ACC opponents recently, winning their sixth straight conference matchup against Boston College on Saturday. The closest a team has gotten to Virginia during that span was seven, which Syracuse did in Charlottesville, Virginia at the start of the month. The Orange could put up another good fight and get near that margin, but they’re still outmatched against UVA.

Virginia Tech exposed two weaknesses in Syracuse, which have been present at different times this season. The Orange can’t do much of anything offensively without Girard or Jesse Edwards leading the scoring, and the 2-3 zone is still susceptible to a strong 3-point attack. UVA shoots the ball at a rate of 38.2% from deep, which ranks 20th nationally. And it completely shut down Edwards the last time around.

So, that leaves Girard. The Orange have been shooting on par with the Cavaliers from deep, and they could respond if Girard gets hot and Justin Taylor is more involved offensively. Taylor showed he could hit some big shots in Blacksburg this past weekend, though he missed one late that could have brought SU within nine. Even if Girard and Taylor are nailing 3-pointers, this will be too tough of a defensive matchup for Syracuse, most likely resulting in a third straight defeat.

Connor Smith (19-3)
Make it 3
Virginia 75, Syracuse 63

Syracuse’s performance against Virginia Tech on Saturday was its worst since getting drubbed at Illinois in November. The Orange couldn’t defend the 3-point line in the first half despite several personnel adjustments and gave up the most points they have in a single game all season. SU has now lost three of its last four games, while the Cavaliers are playing great basketball right now and have won six in a row and eight of nine.

The Hokies were the eighth-best 3-point shooting team in the ACC. Virginia, on the other hand, is the best. The Cavaliers make over 38% of their shots from deep and they hit 12-of-26 (46.2%) when they beat Syracuse earlier this month. UVA always poses a tough matchup for Syracuse, with a top-ranked defense that forces iso-ball and limits opportunities in the paint. Edwards and Girard both struggled against Virginia Tech and Mintz by himself won’t be enough to beat a Virginia team that’s on a roll. I expect the Cavaliers to win this one without much contention and hand Syracuse its third straight loss.

Anthony Alandt (15-7)
Pain
Virginia 68, Syracuse 59

It’s weird to call this possibly the lowest point in Syracuse’s season, especially one that featured losses to Bryant and Colgate, but that last-second loss to North Carolina might have derailed the Orange’s season. There’s no worse opponent to welcome into the Dome than the Cavaliers, especially on a six-game winning streak. Not only has Virginia not allowed a single opponent to score more than 69 points this season, but they easily handled the Orange and led by as much as 23 points.

Syracuse just doesn’t have the team to compete against a defensive juggernaut, one that has a steal percentage of 7.5% and a non-steal turnover rate of 7.1%, both of which are top-25 ratings in the country. Coupled with six players that are shooting better than 30% on 3-pointers and the Orange have a recipe for a blowout on their hands Monday night. Like my fellow beat writers, I’m almost certain that Virginia will glide to a win with ease, moving on to Virginia Tech with a ninth ACC win.

Published on January 29, 2023 at 11:37 pm