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Syracuse picked up its seventh win in eight games on Tuesday night, squeaking out a one-point victory over a struggling Louisville team that entered the game with a 2-12 record. The two teams combined for 36 turnovers, and the Cardinals had a chance to pull out an upset win after Judah Mintz lost the ball with six seconds left. SU survived, though, after Jesse Edwards poked the ball away from El Ellis.

The Orange wrap up their two-game road stretch with a trip to Charlottesville, Virginia, where they’ll match up with No. 11 UVA. Virginia started the season 8-0, which included a win over No. 19 Baylor, but has since lost three of its past five games. The latest came against Pitt on Tuesday, with the Panthers holding on for a 68-65 win at home.

Here’s everything to know about the Cavaliers before Saturday evening’s tip-off:

All-time series

Virginia leads, 11-6.

Last time they played

Syracuse and Virginia faced off on New Year’s Day last January, with the Cavaliers picking up a 74-69 win inside the JMA Wireless Dome. Kihei Clark and Armaan Franklin each scored 17 points, while Kadin Shedrick added a double-double for UVA. Buddy Boeheim recorded a game-high 27 points for the Orange, and his 3 with 1:19 left cut Virginia’s lead to 72-69, but Clark made two free throws with 22 seconds left to seal the win.

Jimmy Boeheim was the only other Syracuse player to register double-digit points, and SU as a whole shot just 34.5% from 3-point range. Cole Swider struggled, missing nine of his 12 field-goal attempts, and Joe Girard III went 1-for-5. The Orange also got little from their bench, with Benny Williams, Symir Torrence and Frank Anselem combining for only four points. The loss was the first of three straight for Syracuse, which would go on to blow late leads at Miami and Wake Forest the following week.

KenPom odds

Virginia has an 86% chance of winning, with a projected score of 70-58.

The Cavaliers report

Virginia is a balanced team, ranking in KenPom’s top 25 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. As they’ve always been under head coach Tony Bennett, the Cavaliers are a slow-paced team that emphasize their defense, ranking No. 1 in the Atlantic Coast Conference with only 60.1 points allowed per game. UVA has held four teams to 50 points or fewer this season.

It doesn’t help opponents that Virginia ranks near the bottom of the nation in adjusted tempo (361st, third-slowest) and average possession length (343rd on offense, 349th on defense), giving them fewer chances to score.

The Cavaliers don’t have any super dynamic scorers, with three players averaging double-digit points, though none notch more than 12 points per game. Clark leads the way with 11.9, and his 5.9 assists per game and 1.9 steals are also the best among any Virginia player. Forward Jayden Gardner scores 11.4 points per game while leading the team with 5.5 rebounds, and Franklin has added 11 and three so far this season.

UVA’s best 3-point shooter — and someone who should get plenty of opportunities against Syracuse’s 2-3 zone — is junior Reece Beekman, who hit a game-winning three against SU two years ago in the ACC Tournament. Beekman shoots 48.3% from 3-point range, and went 3-of-5 from beyond the arc against Pitt on Tuesday.

How Syracuse beats Virginia

The Orange are going to have to make shots Saturday, and some deep ones at that. Virginia’s pack line defense limits driving opportunities or open looks in the paint, requiring teams to work the ball around the perimeter and in many cases, jack up deep 3s. Jim Boeheim has said that SU doesn’t need to rely on the 3-ball to win games, but on Saturday, the Orange likely will have to despite shooting just 34.5% from downtown this year.

Edwards will also likely have a hard time getting easy buckets inside, with 6-foot-11 big man Shedrick ranking fifth in the ACC in blocks per game (1.7). Edwards could draw double teams, and will have to do most of his work on the offensive glass if he wants to contribute. After starting the season with a dominating string of games, Edwards hasn’t posted more than 12 points in his last five games.

SU will also need to get some good looks in transition, which means limiting UVA’s offensive rebounding opportunities. Syracuse ranks 348th in the country in defensive rebounding, though Virginia isn’t a great offensive rebounding team (97rd nationally). The Orange will need Williams and Chris Bell to do what Boeheim has challenged them throughout the season to do: crash the glass and grab rebounds. That way, SU can start its transition offense and get Mintz or Girard quick looks before the Cavaliers’ defense is set up.

Stat to know: 2.8

Clark’s 2.8 assist-to-turnover ratio leads the ACC and ranks 35th nationally. Clark’s assist rate of 38 is also 10th-best nationally, per KenPom, and he leads the league with nearly six assists per game. While perhaps lacking a dominant, go-to scorer, Clark helps Virginia move the ball around, and six players average at least six points per game this season. The senior’s experience helps the Cavaliers run their sets and the shot clock until they get an open look.

Player to watch: Reece Beekman, guard, No. 2

Beekman has steadily seen his role grow at Virginia, and has become one of the team’s top offensive weapons this season. His aforementioned 3-point shooting ability could prove deadly against Syracuse’s 2-3 zone, which saw Mike James break out for 19 points and four made 3s on Tuesday night, and his 34.6 assist rate also ranks in the top-25. Bennett will likely put Beekman at the free-throw line when UVA has the ball, giving the Cavaliers a play who can shoot or pass well.

Published on January 6, 2023 at 6:01 pm

Contact Connor: csmith49@syr.edu | @csmith17_