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Following Syracuse’s 80-57 win over LSU in the inaugural ACC/SEC Challenge, head coach Adrian Autry claimed it was the team’s “best team victory we’ve had so far this year.”

The Orange dished out 16 assists and canned 25 field goals. They shot a blistering, season-high 52.4% from 3. Star point guard Judah Mintz notched a career-best 33 points while forward Chris Bell tacked on another 20. Defensively, SU’s big men Naheem McLeod and Maliq Brown held LSU’s leading scorer, Will Baker, to three points.

But Syracuse’s next challenge is its first conference game — an away showdown against Virginia. Previously ranked in the preseason, the Cavaliers suffered a surprise 65-41 loss to Wisconsin on Nov. 20 but have registered impressive wins over No. 14 Texas A&M, Florida and West Virginia.

Here’s what our beat writers believe will happen when Syracuse (5-2, 0-0 ACC) visits Virginia (6-1, 0-0 ACC) Saturday:

Cole Bambini (7-0)
Snapping the streak
Syracuse 63, Virginia 59

Virginia has dominated this matchup in recent years, winning five consecutive games against the Orange dating back to 2019-20. But aside from an 81-58 blowout loss to the Cavaliers in January 2021, Syracuse has only lost to UVA by seven or less points during the streak.

I think this is the year Syracuse will snap the streak. It’ll need another strong performance by Mintz and decent performances from Bell and Justin Taylor, who can help the Orange get buckets from beyond the arc.

Historically, UVA is a very difficult team for SU to break down. This season, the Cavaliers have only conceded 52.9 points per game, averaging 64.4 points themselves. This season, Virginia has the sixth-best adjusted defensive efficiency in the country, per KenPom. This won’t be a high scoring game, but Syracuse will need to keep it close throughout if it wants to start conference play on a high-note.

Henry O’Brien (7-0)
Pack line punch
Virginia 61, Syracuse 59

Virginia uses its famous pack line defense to stymie opponents like the Orange, forcing players like Mintz into bad shots. But that hasn’t stopped Mintz from producing, with the guard scoring 20 and 18 points in the two matchups between SU and UVA last season.

While Mintz will score at least 20 points, the rest of his teammates will be a major question mark. Last season, Joe Girard III and Bell struggled to score. This will be a familiar problem for both Bell and new guard J.J. Starling.

In Syracuse’s 23-point win over LSU, Starling didn’t make a single shot from the field. As he was finishing up an ACC All-Freshman team campaign last season, Starling didn’t score a point in 14 minutes against the Cavaliers. Expect Starling and Bell to run into a stiff defense that will cause offensive issues. A win over the Tigers should reinvigorate the offense, but Virginia will kill that momentum.

Tyler Schiff (7-0)
Finally over the hump
Syracuse 62, Virginia 55

Syracuse hasn’t beaten Virginia since the 2019-20 season. Some of those defeats have been blowouts but others were close — most notably a last-second 72-69 loss off of a Reece Beekman buzzer-beater in the 2021 ACC Tournament.

But this is a new-look, recharged SU squad. It’s one that hung around with top-15 teams Tennessee and Gonzaga in the Allstate Maui Invitational, before picking apart an LSU side. And despite the Cavaliers being a traditionally exceptional defensive program, the Orange hold the firepower and talent to re-enter the win column in this storied matchup.

Mintz and Starling might have their hands full getting past Beekman and Ryan Dunn, but Syracuse wins this contest with its prolific outside shooting and dominance down low. If Bell continues to hit perimeter jumpers, while McLeod and Brown take advantage of a lesser Cavaliers’ frontcourt now without Kadin Shedrick, expect SU to saunter out of John Paul Jones Arena with its first conference win.

Published on November 30, 2023 at 2:01 am