Terri-Ann Malgieri voted for the first time Feb. 5, and it was a vote that really counted. If she had stayed home, Barack Obama D-IL could have beaten Hilary Clinton D-N.Y. by one vote.

That’s how close the Democratic primary was in the city of Syracuse. Obama and Clinton tied; both receiving 6,001 votes according to county election officials.

Malgieri, a freshman communication and rhetorical studies major, said she almost didn’t vote in the primary.

‘Because of scheduling conflicts I didn’t think I would be able to vote, but at the last minute my friend drove me to the polls,’ she said. ‘It’s really astonishing to realize that my vote could have been the one that tied it.’

The likelihood of something like this happening is ‘almost impossible if the margin between the two candidates is not as tight as observed in Syracuse,’ said Hyune-Ju Kim, a Syracuse math professor.

With a sample of 12,346 voters, like the one observed in Syracuse this year, Kim estimated a 0.36 percent chance of a tie between Clinton and Obama, as based on the multinomial probability model.

While statistically Obama and Clinton tied on last Tuesday, the numbers are not verifiable until absentee ballots are tallied later this week, said Ed Ryan Onondaga County Election Board Commissioner.

‘I think it’s symptomatic of what’s going on throughout the entire country,’ Ryan said. ‘We have two very qualified candidates. Both have a significant base that they’re appealing to, and I think it’s going to be very close throughout the whole process for who will wind up on top.’

Ryan said he saw an increase in college-aged voters on Super Tuesday, a change from past elections.

‘I think apathy has been at the root of it, and I believe now that a lot of them are starting to get concerned about government and who they’re putting in office to do what,’ he said.

Syracuse falls within the 25th Congressional District, which Clinton won with 30,359 votes to Obama’s 17,642, according to the ABC News Web site. Clinton won New York state on Super Tuesday with 57 percent of the votes.

Elizabeth Quencer, a junior political science major, is working in Clinton’s senate office. She said the Syracuse tie is evidence of a close national race.

Quencer is spending the semester in Washington D.C. with the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs’ International Relations program.

‘I’ve never seen such a tight primary race in the democratic party, not that that I’ve been around long enough, but it’s definitely an interesting time to be in D.C.,’ she said.

She said she was initially surprised by the tie because of the media’s portrayal of Obama’s popularity on college campuses.

‘I was expecting Obama to win college campuses across the country because he is said to have such strong support with young Americans,’ she said. ‘But Syracuse is in New York state where a lot of New Yorkers think Clinton has done a great job as senator.’

Malgieri said she did not know who she would vote for until the day of elections.

‘I was in the booth saying, ‘oh my God what do I do?’ It came down to the last minute for me; I was in the booth teetering between Clinton and Obama,’ she said.

Like Malgieri, many Democratic voters are struggling with the decision between Obama and Clinton.

Yesterday’s races in Virginia, Maryland and DC tightened things up even more with 168 delegates at stake for the Democrats. Obama was the projected winner in Washington D.C., Maryland and Virgina, according to MSNBC.com.

Before Tuesday’s primary in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia, Clinton had 1,148 delegates to Obama’s 1,121 according to CNN. This count factors in super-delegates-Democratic party affiliates who will also vote at the Democratic convention this August. CNN estimates that Clinton has 224 super-delegates to Obama’s 135. This number could change if the super-delegates’ preferences change.

jmterrus@syr.edu

Published on February 12, 2008 at 12:00 pm