If Michael Bloomberg decides to run for president, his candidacy would be an absolute treat for the Republican Party.

As a very wealthy and fairly well-respected former mayor of New York City, Bloomberg was a Republican. However, he spent most of his life as a Democrat before running for office in 2001. Then, in 2007, Bloomberg suddenly decided to switch to an Independent and drop his party affiliation.

Sources have confirmed to TIME that he will most likely remain registered as an Independent if he does make a White House bid, a conversation that has been making its way throughout 2016 political discourse. And, in a stunning turn of events, it is this factor that would allow the Republicans to use an independent to get their candidate elected to reverse what happened to them in the 1992 race.

With Bloomberg as a third-party option for voters, the most popular Democratic candidates, including former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), are in big trouble. While the Republican leaders, Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) will lose points, Bloomberg’s liberal core will do more damage to the Democratic nominee.

Republicans got the short end of the stick when George H.W. Bush lost in the 1992 election to Bill Clinton, with help from third-party candidate Ross Perot. Many pundits believe that Perot cost Bush the race because he took away too many votes. This time around, though, it’s the Democrats who will fail and Bloomberg will take the place of Perot rather than any Republican front-runner if he decides to run.

A recent Morning Consult poll just backed up this theory: Clinton edges Trump head-to-head by 2 percentage points. However, they also say that in a presidential race including Bloomberg, Clinton’s backing drops 8 points, while Trump’s support only goes down by 5 points.

“He could potentially change some of the conversations being had. It’s refreshing, but there’s no way he’ll win,” said Danielle Thomsen, an assistant professor in the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University.

This shake-up is exactly why Bloomberg could provide the perfect alternative to the eccentric nature of Trump or Cruz. Bloomberg poses as a more moderate option, and, as a billionaire himself, knows the importance of maintaining big business and capitalistic opportunity — main values for conservatives.

However, considering his past policies, it’s easy to see that Bloomberg is more liberal than anything else — a fact that will ultimately kill the Democrats’ chances for controlling the presidency more than eight years in a row.

Gun legislation

The former mayor has come down hard on gun control — an issue that has become central to anti-Republican criticism. In 2014, Bloomberg started the Everytown for Gun Safety group that was successful in banning guns from Starbucks and creating anti-gun infomercials with star basketball players. A noteworthy fraction Republican voters have seemingly had a negative reaction to further gun laws posed by President Barack Obama, so it’s doubtful they will be fond of Bloomberg’s stance.

Business regulation

When it comes to business, one of Bloomberg’s past proposals that could make him unpopular among Republican voters involves Big Gulp soft drinks. To put it kindly, Bloomberg’s effort to stop people from drinking extra-large cups of soda in order to be healthier didn’t receive the nicest reception in the public eye. Essentially, it was viewed as a freedom-limiting plot that put small-government principles at stake.

Pro-choice support

Bloomberg is also pro-choice. He believes in a women’s right to her body in regard to abortion. He feels so strongly about it that he once donated $2 million to Emily’s List, a group of Democratic pro-choice women, according to the group’s website. It is a controversial stance that most conservatives will not agreed with.

Seemingly everyone on the Republican side of the aisle, including the anti-establishment candidates, disagree with Bloomberg on these three major issues. That’s exactly why he will be one of their biggest allies. The more Democratic voters he attracts, the less chance Clinton or Sanders have of winning the election.

When a vote is cast for an Independent, it’s one less vote for a candidate in the running for one of the dominant parties – a vote that throw off the political expectations of a two-party system.

“There’s also the problem of getting people to vote for you as a third party candidate. Knowing that if they vote for you they could end up with their worst choice,” said Thomsen.

History shows that it’s incredibly difficult to be elected as a third-party candidate, no matter how high your approval ratings are. Even Teddy Roosevelt, who has gone on to be considered one of the United States’ best presidents, lost a third-party White House bid with the “Bull Moose” Party in 1912.

That being said, even if Bloomberg misses out on key states like Iowa and New Hampshire, he can still leave a dent in the race to the Oval Office.

Kyle O’Connor is a sophomore sport management major and political science minor. His column appears weekly. He can be reached at kdoconno@syr.edu.

Published on February 2, 2016 at 12:05 am