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Syracuse University’s Public Health Team considers county-level COVID-19 data in its decision making process, said Mike Haynie, vice chancellor for strategic initiatives and innovation, in a campus-wide email sent on Oct. 21.

The university’s Public Health Team makes decisions about public health and safety protocols on campus, including the university’s masking policy.

SU’s relationship with Onondaga County

In an analysis conducted by The Daily Orange, Onondaga County and SU data showed no strong correlation between the percent change of COVID-19 cases in the county and cases at SU. The D.O. looked at  several variables, comparing SU’s total number of cases to county-level COVID-19 data.

As SU’s total number of cases are not updated every day, The Daily Orange used interpolated data to fill in gaps. 

One variable the analysis looked at was the daily percent change in SU and Onondaga County’s seven-day rolling average in active cases. Percent change is calculated by taking the difference of the present and previous days, dividing that difference by the amount from the previous day, and multiplying the result by 100.

While a linear model needs a confidence level of 95% to show a strong correlation, the relationship between the two variables was only 59.8%.

Hannah Ferrera | Asst. Digital Editor

The daily percent change in the seven-day rolling average of the percent of ICU beds in Onondaga County being taken by COVID-19 patients has a significant relationship with the change in SU’s seven-day rolling average in active cases.

A linear model found, with a confidence level of over 99.9%, that there was a relationship  between the two variables.

The model also found that 47.2% of the variation in the university’s COVID-19 cases could be attributed to the ICU variable.

While Onondaga County’s daily percent change in active COVID-19 cases does not have a statistically significant relationship with SU’s number of cases, the county’s level of ICU COVID-19 patients does act as a significant indicator.

Transmission level

As of Nov. 7, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lists Onondaga County as having a “high” risk of transmission, along with 70.5% of U.S. counties.

The CDC looks at two different variables to decide the transmission status of a county: “percentage of positive NAATs (Nucleic Acid Amplification Tests) during the past 7 days” and “new cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days.” 

Using these standards, The D.O. calculated the transmission status of SU every Friday.

SU does not fully publish information regarding the total testing on campus, so testing rate cannot be used. 

In the beginning of the fall 2021 semester, SU did not report cases every day Monday through Friday. Due to SU’s lack of reporting early in the semester, analysis using new cases started as SU on Sept. 13, when the policy fully shifted to report COVID-19 every day Monday through Friday.

The CDC reported 100 new cases or more per 100,000 people over the past seven days would indicate a high transmission level. On Sept. 17, SU had a “high level of transmission,” having 574.8 new cases per 100,000 people using SU population data from fall 2020.

From Sep. 17 to Oct. 15, the university stayed at a “high” transmission level.

In the week of Oct. 22, the university dipped under 100 new cases per 100,000, hitting a rate of 60.1 per 100,000. Since the change, the school has stayed at a “substantial” transmission rate according to CDC methodology, the second highest possible.

The CDC’s recommendations for counties with “high” or “substantial” rates of transmission are not different. The CDC specifically recommends wearing a mask in public, indoor settings.

Published on November 8, 2021 at 12:55 am

Contact Kyle: kschouin@syr.edu | @Kyle_Chouinard