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Syracuse is bracing for a forecast of 30-mile-an-hour winds and seven to 10 inches of snow by Thursday morning, following weeks of already regular snowfall in the city. For local residents and those from across the Northern snow belt regions, this lake effect snow phenomenon is nothing new.

Lake effect snow occurs when cold, dry air moves over warmer lake water, causing the lakewater to evaporate into the air. As the moist air moves over the land and rises, it forms snowflakes that eventually fall as lake effect snow, said Samuel Tuttle, an assistant professor of hydroclimatology and snow hydrology at SU.

This weather phenomenon is unique to areas downwind of large bodies of water, specifically large lakes. Upstate New York, including cities like Buffalo and Rochester, regularly experiences such heavy snowfall. The phenomenon also impacts many metropolitan areas in the Great Lakes region including Cleveland, Ohio and Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Central New York’s notorious heavy snowfall is caused by its proximity to Lake Ontario. The lake’s size and depth, along with the alignment of the Great Lakes — Ontario being the easternmost — create the ideal conditions for intense lake effect snow, Tuttle said.

Tripti Bhattacharya, an associate professor of paleoclimate dynamics at SU, said that as strong winds blow over the many lakes northwest of Syracuse, they pick up moisture that falls as heavy snow in the wintertime.

Syracuse averages around 116 inches of lake effect snow per year, according to a study from the University of Michigan. This winter season, the city has seen 45.5 inches of snowfall, with over half of that recorded this January. Because of the lake effect, Syracuse experiences some of the highest annual rates of snowfall in the nation.

For lake effect snow to fall, both the air and water temperatures must align to create the necessary conditions. The air’s temperature must be about 23 degrees Fahrenheit colder than the lake’s temperature.

While some politicians and environmentalists have expressed concerns about the future of snowfall in the Northeast as a result of climate change, Bhattacharya said lake effect snow is here to stay. Warmer lakes are less likely to freeze, allowing winds to use the lake’s warmth to generate the snow.

But, as temperatures rise, more precipitation is falling as rain instead of snow in the winter. This results in a snow deficit, something Syracuse has experienced, Bhattacharya said.

Unlike traditional winter storms that are driven by large-scale, low-pressure air movements when warm air from the Gulf of Mexico collides with cold air from Canada, lake effect snow is specifically triggered. It creates localized snow bands, which means the phenomenon can be triggered even in clear conditions, said Colin Beier, an associate professor of ecology at SUNY ESF.

“Lake effect snow happens almost out of a clear blue sky. It’s like a squall or blizzard that appears suddenly, and that’s because the lake acts as a heat reservoir, making the air over it warmer and wetter, which causes the snow,” Beier said.

Lake effect snow differs from typical snow storms because of these narrow snow bands. The bands can be widespread, leading to heavy snow concentrations in specific regions.

Meteorologists and weather scientists have been working for years to find an effective way to track and predict lake effect snow, but many challenges remain. Lake effect snow is influenced by a variety of factors, including wind direction, air and water temperatures and how much moisture the lake supplies. These factors result in variations in patterns, so while one area may receive a foot of snow while another area a mile away might receive just an inch, Beier said.

Tuttle added that forecasting lake effect snow is also challenging due to its localized nature and the fact that it forms at low altitudes, sometimes below the detection range of weather radar.

The direction and speed of the wind are also crucial in determining where lake effect snow will occur, Tuttle said. A longer wind path over the lake, known as the fetch, allows additional moisture to be picked up and leads to heavier snow.

Beier agreed, saying the path of lake effect snow is tricky to predict due to dependence on ever-changing local wind patterns.

“Living here, you get used to it. You learn to embrace the snow, especially if you love skiing or snowshoeing,” Beier said. “But there’s always that moment when you’re ready for spring in March or April.”

Published on January 28, 2025 at 11:38 pm

Contact Shivika: sgupta38@syr.edu